Crypto asset investing in the age of autonomy
- ISBN: 9781119705369
- Editorial: John Wiley & Sons Limited
- Fecha de la edición: 2021
- Lugar de la edición: Hoboken. Estados Unidos de Norteamérica
- Encuadernación: Cartoné
- Medidas: 23 cm
- Nº Pág.: 281
- Idiomas: Inglés
Competition, the drive for efficiency, and continuous improvement ultimately push businesses toward automation and later towards autonomy. If a business can operate without human intervention, it will minimize its operational cost. If Uber can remove the expense of a driver with an autonomous vehicle, it will provide its service cheaper than a competitor who can't. If an artificially intelligent trading company can search, find, and take advantage of some arbitrage opportunity, then it can profit where its competitors cannot. A business that can analyze and execute in real-time without needing to wait for a human to act, is a business that will be able to take advantage of brief inefficiencies from other markets or businesses.
This trend following a thesis that is based on 100 years of proven economic theory. Short-wave economic cycles, those 5- to 10-year cycles, are driven by credit but the long-wave economic cycles, those 50- to 60-year cycles, are driven by technological revolution. We've had 5 cycles over the past 200 years with the last wave, the Age of Information & Telecommunications.
We've seen evidence that a new cycle has begun. Technological revolutions come by way of a cluster of new innovations. About a decade ago, you started to see AI, robotics and IoT (sensors) delivering on automation. That's been powerful, but not transformational. It does not force businesses to fundamentally change how they do business. The last piece of the puzzle was cryptocurrency because it allows us to process and transfer economic value without human intervention. Soon, there will be a global race to build autonomous operations. Businesses and organizations without autonomous operations simply will not be able to compete with those that do because ... autonomy is the ultimate competitive advantage.
Crypto is the mechanism that will accrue value from being the infrastructure for the next digital financial revolution. Crypto Asset Investing lays out a case that we've begun a new technological revolution similar to the Internet Age of the 1990's. Artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, robotics and cryptocurrency are converging to deliver on a new age, what I call the Age of Autonomy. Understanding the transformation that's taken place before anyone else can yield enormous investment opportunity. In this book, you'll learn how and why to invest in crypto assets.
Introduction – Why This Book and Now
We Are Marching Toward Two Worlds
Where We Are in the Current Economic Cycle
Investing in the New Technological Revolution
The Push Toward Autonomy
Innovations That Make the Age of Autonomy Possible
The Age of Autonomy – Welcome to the Future
The Ideal Investment Profile
Investing in Crypto Assets in the Age of Autonomy
Putting It All Together
Part I: The History of Economic Cycles and Monetary Policy
Chapter 1: The Fed and You, A Brief History
How It Was versus How It Is
Monetary Policy – The History of the Federal Reserve
The US Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency
Sovereign Currencies Are Now All Fiat Currency
Chapter 2: Understanding Economic Cycles
Terms and Definitions
The Economic Cycle
Deleveraging – Understanding a Debt Crisis
Where Are We in the Long-term Debt Cycle?
What’s Outside the Economic Cycle Definition
Current Cycle Comparison to Past Cycles
Chapter 3: The Long-wave Economic Cycle
The Kondratieff Cycle
Spring – The Start of Inflation
Summer – Runaway Inflation
Autumn – Disinflation
Winter – Deflation
Technological Revolutions – Building on the Long-wave Cycle
The Past Long-wave Cycle – The Age of the Internet
Moving in Cycles
Chapter 4: Safe Is the New Risky
The Problem – Historical Truth, Contemporary Fallacy
US Treasuries Are a “Risk-free” Asset
Owning a Stock Was Always Owning an Asset
There Is No Counterparty Risk to Owning Gold
Savings Accounts Are Safe
The News Is News
Okay, Boomer
Conclusion
Chapter 5: Credit and Commodity Currencies
The Purpose of Money
Commodity Money (Sound Money)
Periods of Sound Money Policy
Bi-metal Periods
Credit Money (Unsound Money)
Problems with Credit Money
Periods of Unsound Money Policy
Chapter 6: The Fall of Credit Money and the Rise of Multicurrencies
The Fall of Credit-based Currencies
The Ever-increasing Size of Bubbles
The Federal Reserve’s Modern Policies and Positions
Unintended Consequences
Modern Global Monetary Policy – Money Printer Goes Brrrrr
The Decline of the US Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency
The End of a Sovereign Debt Cycle
The Future – A Multicurrency World
Part II: The Rise of Blockchain and the Age of Autonomy
Chapter 7: A Digital Commodity: Bitcoin as Digital Gold
A Primer on Bitcoin
What’s Unique About Bitcoin
Triple-Entry Accounting
Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Global Monetary Policy
Bitcoin as Sound Money
The Bitcoin Halvening Event
Scarcity Value and the Stock-to-Flow Model
Other Ways to Value Bitcoin
Chapter 8: Blockchains
Blockchains: The Basics
Blockchain Properties
Primitives of Blockchain
Vulnerabilities
Use Cases
Conclusion
Chapter 9: The Age of Autonomy
Long-wave Economic Cycles –?100 Years of Economic Theory
Blockchain – ?The Last Piece of the Puzzle
A Brief History
The Age of Autonomy: What’s Possible
An Example of the Future Decentralized Autonomous Corporation
The Knowledge Doubling Curve
The Case Against a Continuation of the Old Technological Revolution
Conclusion
Chapter 10: Clusters of Innovation in the Age of Autonomy
Parallels to the Internet Technological Revolution
Blockchain Infrastructure for the Age of Autonomy
The State of Artificial Intelligence
The Intersection of Blockchain and AI
The Intersection of Robotics, AI, and IoT/Sensor Data Technologies
Ephemeralization
Chapter 11: The Case for Investing in Crypto Assets
Old Fiat Money Regimes Are Dying
Possession Is 9/10ths of the Law
Old Investment Strategies Are Becoming Antiquated
Risk Management Favors Antifragility and Ephemeralization
Seizure-Resistant Assets Have a Premium
Blockchain Immutability Solves Information Integrity
The Gold versus Bitcoin Argument
A Set of New Innovations Is Affecting Everyone
Revolution in the Means of Production
Invest in Scarcity
Public Financial Infrastructure
Innovation Creates Asymmetry
Crypto Assets: A New Asset Class
Part III: Crypto Investment Strategies
Chapter 12: A Primer on Crypto Asset Investing
What Are Crypto Assets?
Crypto Classification: Security versus Commodity
Passive Investing and the Crypto Index Fallacy
Value Accrual – Value Creation and Value Capture
Investing from First Principles
Investment Vehicle Options for Crypto Investing
Chapter 13: Quantitative Analysis Frameworks
Fundamental Valuation Using On-chain Metrics
Global Macro Risk Management Models
A Model for Fundamental Analysis
Interpretations of the Model
Summary of Other Valuation Models
Token Models and Tokenomics
Token Mechanics
Conclusion on Models and Frameworks
Chapter 14: Understanding Crypto Asset Classes
Reserve Crypto Assets
Cryptocurrencies
Platform Crypto Assets
Utility Tokens
Governance Tokens
Security Tokens
Asset-backed Tokens
Crypto-Commodities
Appcoins/DApps (Decentralized Apps)
Nonfungible Tokens (NFTs)
Stablecoins
Other Approaches
Conclusion
